A recently published systematic review and meta-analysis offers the most comprehensive assessment to date of the prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in the MENA region.
This study, synthesizes data from 19 studies published between 2007 and 2025 collectively covering more than 3.7 million participants across countries such as Iran, Oman, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iraq.
Key Findings and Global Context
The study estimates the overall prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in the MENA region at 0.14%. While this figure is notably lower than the 2023 global estimate of approximately 1 in 100 children (1.0%), the researchers highlight a significant upward trend within the region. Prevalence estimates for studies conducted after 2015 rose sharply to 0.45%, compared to just 0.04% for studies conducted before that year.
This lower reported prevalence in MENA compared to Western countries may be attributed to several factors, including:
- Limited access to specialized diagnostic resources
- A lack of screening programs and diagnostic tools that are sensitive to local cultures
- Underrepresentation of several MENA countries in the studies
- Variation in diagnostic tools and criteria
- Differences in age ranges and study populations
- Limited availability of nationally representative surveillance data
Regional Variability
One of the most striking findings was the wide variability in prevalence across different countries and diagnostic methods. Due to this high heterogeneity observed, a descriptive analysis of ASD prevalence in each country was carried out. The recorded prevalence is as follows:
- Iraq: 6.50% in 2024
- Saudi Arabia: 2.51% in a 2017–2018 study and 0.29% in another study in 2020.
- Qatar: 1.14% in a 2015 study and 4.33% in a study in 2017-2018
- Lebanon: 1.50% in 2014
- Egypt: 0.54% in 2017
- UAE: 0.43% from a single study published in 2007
- Libya: 0.33% between the years 2005-2009
- Bahrain: 0.043% for the year 2005 and 0.51% between 2021 and 2022
- Oman: 0.01% in 2009 to 0.20% between years 2011-2018
The authors caution that such differences are unlikely to represent true epidemiological variation alone. Instead, they likely reflect disparities in healthcare access, awareness, study design, diagnostic practices, and availability of specialist services across countries. Moreover, African countries within the MENA region were significantly underrepresented in the available literature.
Impact of Diagnostic Methodology
One of the most important findings of the review was the influence of diagnostic methodology on reported prevalence. When studies were stratified by diagnostic approach:
- Studies relying solely on screening tools, particularly the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT), reported a pooled prevalence of 1.66%
- Studies applying DSM-based clinical diagnostic criteria reported a pooled prevalence of 0.14%
This marked discrepancy highlights a critical diagnostic gap, whereby screening tools may identify children at increased risk for ASD who are not subsequently confirmed through comprehensive clinical assessment. The authors emphasize that screening prevalence should not be conflated with clinically diagnosed ASD, particularly in regions where access to specialist diagnostic services is limited.
Conclusion
While the reported prevalence of ASD in the MENA region has increased over time, methodological inconsistencies and limited surveillance infrastructure continue to constrain robust regional estimates. Moreover, the high level of heterogeneity between studies makes definitive conclusions difficult. The study emphasizes a critical need for more robust, longitudinal, and methodologically consistent research across the region to better understand the true scope of ASD.
Article edited and summarized by Amal Ashraf
Reference Source: Akomolafe, A. F., Abdallah, B. M., Mahmood, F. R., et al. (2025). Estimates of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder in the Middle East and North Africa region: A systematic review and Meta-Analysis. BMC Public Health, 25:2519. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23651-x
